By MAFP Lobbyist Megan Verdeja and the United Strategies Team
As we move into the holiday season, the legislature is beginning to organize itself in preparation for the 2025 Minnesota Legislative Session, which begins on Tuesday, January 14. While much of the country is focused on the transition from the Biden to the Trump presidency, here in Minnesota, we are facing a unique situation with a tied Minnesota House of Representatives.
Election Recounts
The recount in Scott County for House District 54A, where incumbent DFL Representative Brad Tabke led GOP candidate Aaron Paul by 14 votes, took place on November 21, 2024. The recount resulted in Representative Tabke holding on to his seat by 15 votes. The Scott County elections administrator said they had 21 more absentee records than ballots counted in the city of Shakopee, though. The House GOP is questioning the unaccounted-for ballots and requesting that the recount not be certified until they are found. They are also threatening legal action if this issue is not resolved.
In House District 14B, there will also be a recount in the race between incumbent DFL Representative Dan Wolgamott, who is currently leading by 191 votes, and his opponent, Susan Ek. Although this vote total is outside the margin for an automatic recount, Sherburne County decided to move forward with a recount due to a tabulating error in a vote scanner that caused confusion with vote totals on election night. The recount began on November 25, 2024.
Minnesota House
As a reminder, barring any changes from the two recounts mentioned above, the composition of the Minnesota House of Representatives is tied at 67 DFL to 67 GOP members. Speaker-Designate Hortman (DFL-Brooklyn Park) and Speaker-Designate Demuth (GOP-Cold Spring) have been meeting privately since the election to try to find common ground and a workable power-sharing solution.
A framework of what has been agreed to so far follows.
Committees:
- There will be 24 committees, down from 28 in the last cycle. Last biennium’s Economic Development, Labor and Workforce committees have been combined into one, and the Sustainable Infrastructure Policy Committee has been eliminated. Government Operations returns as a focus and has been combined with Elections, and “Climate” is no longer part of the title of the Energy Finance and Policy Committee.
- Each committee will have a Democrat and a Republican co-chair, as well as an equal number of DFL and GOP members.
- The standing committee schedule has been finalized and released.
- We have also heard that the DFL caucus is retaining all of its staff, while the Republican caucus plans to increase its staff. This suggests there may be two committee administrators for each committee—one from each party—but we are still awaiting confirmation.
What We Don’t Know (Yet):
- Who the co-chairs of each committee will be.
- The membership of each committee.
- How each committee will operate procedurally. For example, will the Republicans chair on Tuesdays and the Democrats on Thursdays? Will there need to be agreement on what bills they hear? Will the bills require votes to pass out of committee or will they be laid over to be included in an omnibus bill?
Minnesota Senate
With Ann Johnson Stewart (DFL-Plymouth) winning the special election in Senate District 45, the DFL retained its one-vote majority. Senator Erin Murphy (DFL-St. Paul) will again serve as the Senate Majority Leader, and Senator Mark Johnson (GOP-East Grand Forks) has been re-elected by his peers to serve as Minority Leader.
The Senate is expected to operate much like it has for the past two years. We aren’t anticipating any major overhauls of the committee composition or structure and are awaiting the official release of committee schedules and members.
Governor’s Office
With Governor Walz’s return to Minnesota, the administration and state agencies are finalizing his budget recommendations.
Budget Forecast
November Forecast: The state’s budget forecast for the upcoming biennium will be released by Friday, December 6, 2024. These numbers will guide and shape initial budget recommendations until the February forecast is released.
We expect a small budget surplus for the remainder of the current budget cycle, as revenues have been outperforming estimates for most of the year. For future bienniums, we anticipate structural budget deficits. Any new spending will likely be in the form of one-time appropriations, as ongoing base funding will need to be reined in to return to a balanced budget.
Before the 2025 Minnesota Legislative Session begins, read a recap of what happened in 2024.
